This morning, the POLITICO-GWU Battleground Poll results were released, indicating the views of the electorate prior to the 2010 midterm elections. The polls were analyzed by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Each pollster offered their own evaluation of the polling results.
According to the results of the Congressional generic ballot, the Republican and Democratic parties are tied 43%-43%. However, 45% of voters believe Republicans will reclaim the House of Representatives in November, and 46% believe they will take control of the Senate.
Additionally, the majority of “likely” voters polled believe “the economy and jobs” is the most important issue in this election cycle.
In offering her analysis of the results, Democrat pollster Celinda Lake warned against writing off Democrats too quickly in November, claiming the typical election environment always consists of a “mood of change” and that “reports of the Democrats demise have been greatly exaggerated.” Despite President Obama’s 48% disapproval rating, Lake attributed the data to voters having “complex” views of the President.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas offered opposing views over the results and stated that this election is an opportunity for Republicans to “connect with voters” and to articulate values that many Americans share with the Party. In his strategic analysis, Goeas writes:
Congressional Republicans also have strong advantages over Congressional Democrats on critical fiscal issues like holding down taxes (53%-26%) and controlling wasteful spending (42%-28%).
While the majority of voters favored Republicans for a Congressional takeover, 25% blamed the Bush administration for the current state of the economy, 20% blamed financial institutions, 15% blamed Congress, and 11% blamed President Obama.