Last week, my favorite opinion writer and a man whose judgment I respect greatly, Charles Krauthammer, called 2011 a “split decision.” He argued that 2012 will be even more of a dogfight now that “the powerful Republican tailwind of 2010 is now becalmed,” pointing to the GOP losses in matters like Issue 2 in Ohio and the governorship in Kentucky. After taking a week to digest and reflect on the 2011 elections, I must respectfully disagree. I have concluded that they mean very little in terms of 2012.
There is plenty of evidence on both sides of the elections to suggest radically different implications for 2012. It is easy to point to Issue 2 and paint it as a devastating defeat for the GOP. But simply looking at results ignores a number of other factors in that campaign, such as the fact that opponents of the measure had to spend millions of dollars more in a campaign against it to achieve their desired results. It also overlooks the serious tactical error made by Republicans by failing to exclude firefighters and policemen from the collective bargaining reform as their counterparts in the Wisconsin state legislature had done in similar legislation.
Just as easy as it is to highlight GOP losses in this election, it is similarly easy to point to victories as an indicator for the 2012 election cycle. Unsurprisingly receiving less coverage from the liberal media, Ohio voters also resoundingly approved Issue 3, a referendum on legislation rejecting individual healthcare mandates, the signature element of Obamacare. That measure passed with considerably more support than the margins by which Issue 2 failed. In fellow swing state Virginia, a state that went to Obama in 2008, the Republican trend continued after the election of Governor Bob McDonell (R) in 2009 with the Republicans taking control of the state legislature.
What was the missing factor in this election? In short, the Tea Party. While the grassroots movement may have lent moderate support to certain candidates or issues here or there, the organization of 2010 was not there. Hardly an indicator of the movement’s decline, it was a reflection of a
simple fact—the Tea Party has its eyes set on 2012. The source of Tea Party animus is out-of-control government spending and horrendous economic policy incarnate—the Obama administration. The Tea Party will be spending serious money in this election to accomplish the ultimate goal of taking back the White House. Don’t believe the media propaganda about the possibility of the Tea Party rejecting the Republican nominee if he or she doesn’t align perfectly with the Tea Party ideologically. According to a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, ninety percent (90%) of Tea Party activists surveyed said they would support whoever the party nominates (and that number is probably a little low).
This doesn’t mean that the election is going to be an easy win by any means. The highly-organized and effective Democratic machine (including the mainstream media) will kick their efforts into high gear in the next few months. However, the Republicans have enormous strategic advantage—forcing Obama to run on his record of governance rather than “Hope.” The GOP will have no shortage of ammunition with which to hammer the Obama administration, from Solyndra and “Fast and Furious,” to Obamacare and an ineffective stimulus with magically-disappearing money. Obama, in turn, will have no choice but to argue that Republicans made governing impossible. We’ll see if the American electorate buys that argument.
Finally, there are couple of developing stories which could significantly benefit the GOP in the 2012 election cycle. With that, my “What 2 Watch 4” segment for this week:
-         With each passing day, the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran to neutralize their hostile nuclear weapons program increases. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has been rallying support in his cabinet for an attack, and there is speculation that it may occur as early as before the end of the year. The Obama administration has a history of icy relations with Israel and Netanyahu and Obama recently reemphasized his disdain for the leader in an embarrassing not-so-private moment with French president Sarkozy. If Israel does in fact go to war and attack Iran, it could be the opening salvo in a conflict of existential consequence for Israel. In that scenario, the Obama administration would have no choice but to come to the aid of Israel. However, any hesitation on the part of the administration would be a valuable weapon for the more pro-Israel, pro-defense Republican Party.
-         The United State Supreme Court recently granted writ of certiorari to three legal cases challenging the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). The court will decide the case sometime in the first few months of next year. If it rules against the law, or at least against the individual mandate element of it, it will be a huge political loss and blow to the administration and give opponents of the bill arguing for its repeal more fuel for their arguments. If Obama were to lose his signature piece of legislation at that time of the cycle, it could very well prove a deciding factor in the election.
